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This paper examines the welfare implications of a nominal GDP growth targeting rule, a nominal GDP level targeting rule, and inflation targeting regime in a New Keynesian model featuring positive trend inflation, two measures of w...
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This paper examines the welfare implications of a nominal GDP growth targeting rule, a nominal GDP level targeting rule, and inflation targeting regime in a New Keynesian model featuring positive trend inflation, two measures of welfare, and both high and low growth environments. The paper finds that (i) in general, nominal GDP growth targeting dominates other rules with changes in all dimensions; (ii) nominal GDP growth targeting framework is superior to the level targeting regime for most scenarios; (iii) inflation targeting is preferred to nominal GDP level targeting regime, but to minimize short-run fluctuations, the latter is advantageous; (iv) nominal GDP level targeting may be desirable only in a low growth environment with both low inflation indexation and consumption equivalence criteria. The simulation results provide solid evidence to policy makers on the desirability of nominal GDP growth targeting.
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This paper evaluates the welfare properties of nominal GDP targeting in the context of a New Keynesian model with both price and wage rigidity. In particular, we compare nominal GDP targeting to inflation and output gap targeting ...
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This paper evaluates the welfare properties of nominal GDP targeting in the context of a New Keynesian model with both price and wage rigidity. In particular, we compare nominal GDP targeting to inflation and output gap targeting as well as to a conventional Taylor rule. These comparisons are made on the basis of welfare losses relative to a hypothetical equilibrium with flexible prices and wages. Output gap targeting is the most desirable of the rules under consideration, but nominal GDP targeting performs almost as well. Nominal GDP targeting is associated with smaller welfare losses than a Taylor rule and significantly outperforms inflation targeting. Relative to inflation targeting and a Taylor rule, nominal GDP targeting performs best conditional on supply shocks and when wages are sticky relative to prices. Nominal GDP targeting may outperform output gap targeting if the gap is observed with noise, and has more desirable properties related to equilibrium determinacy than does gap targeting. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This paper examines a nominal GDP growth targeting (NGDP-GT) rule, two Taylor types of rules and a strict inflation targeting regime in a New Keynesian model with the assumption of a positive rate of trend inflation. The model ado...
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This paper examines a nominal GDP growth targeting (NGDP-GT) rule, two Taylor types of rules and a strict inflation targeting regime in a New Keynesian model with the assumption of a positive rate of trend inflation. The model adopts a trend total factor productivity (TFP) growth to compare monetary policies in both high and low growth environments. Policy rankings are affected by the level of trend growth, the level of partial indexation to inflation and different specifications of the Taylor rule. NGDP-GT either outperforms other regimes or is weakly dominated by a desirable policy. Specifically, from the stability perspective, NGDP-GT is preferred compared to a Taylor type of rule and a strict inflation targeting regime in stabilizing the economy. It reduces inflation volatility by 25% or more while performs almost as well in stabilizing output and consumption relative to the Taylor rule. It produces at least 27% less fluctuations in output and consumption, and is almost as well as inflation targeting in stabilizing inflation. From the welfare perspective, when the Taylor rule takes the simple form, inflation targeting is the least desirable framework and NGDP-GT is weakly dominated by the Taylor rule. The conclusions are not conditioning on the trend growth rate or the level of inflation indexation. However, if the Taylor rule takes the form that interest rate responds to deviations of inflation and output growth (TR-II), when a TFP shock hits the economy and trend growth rate A = 1, TR-II generates of the least welfare loss and NGDP-GT performs almost as well. When trend growth rate A not equal 1, NGDP-GT is the most desirable policy regime. When the economy is subject to a markup shock, and A >= 1 and (or) partial indexation to inflation eta = 1, TR-II dominates the other two regimes. For other cases, NGDP-GT is the desirable policy rule. (C) 2020 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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In this paper, I analyze optimal monetary policy in developing countries whose labor markets are characterized by the presence of a large informal sector. I develop a closed economy model with nominal price and wage rigidities, se...
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In this paper, I analyze optimal monetary policy in developing countries whose labor markets are characterized by the presence of a large informal sector. I develop a closed economy model with nominal price and wage rigidities, search and matching frictions, and a dual labor market: a formal one characterized by matching frictions and nominal wage rigidities, and an informal one where wages are fully flexible. Under this framework, a trade-off between price and wage inflation emerges. I find that informality increases the response of price and wage inflation to aggregate productivity shocks. As a result, the presence of an informal sector increases the inefficient fluctuations of labor market variables, such as unemployment, labor market tightness, and formal hiring rate. I find that optimal policy with informality features significant deviations from price stability in response to aggregate productivity shocks.
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One implication of the concept of monetary equilibrium is that the money supply should vary with money demand. In a recent paper, Bagus and Howden (Rev Austrian Econ 24:383-402, 2011) argue that this conclusion is predicated on th...
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One implication of the concept of monetary equilibrium is that the money supply should vary with money demand. In a recent paper, Bagus and Howden (Rev Austrian Econ 24:383-402, 2011) argue that this conclusion is predicated on the assumption of price stickiness. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that the foundation of monetary equilibrium is the role of money as a medium of exchange. As such, changes in the demand for money result in changes in both nominal and real spending that are welfare-reducing. This proposition is then used to examine whether a monetary policy in which the central bank varies the money supply in response to money demand can be considered optimal. In addition, the paper considers how a free banking system with competitive note issuance would vary the money supply in response to changes in money demand. In both cases, the results are consistent with the concept of monetary equilibrium. In addition, these results can be obtained even when prices are perfectly flexible if trade is decentralized (i.e. not conducted in Walrasian markets). Price stickiness is therefore not a necessary condition to suggest that the money supply should vary with money demand.
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Some economists advocate nominal GDP targeting as an alternative to the Taylor Rule. These arguments are largely based on the idea that nominal GDP targeting would require less knowledge on the part of policymakers than a traditio...
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Some economists advocate nominal GDP targeting as an alternative to the Taylor Rule. These arguments are largely based on the idea that nominal GDP targeting would require less knowledge on the part of policymakers than a traditional Taylor Rule. In particular, a nominal GDP targeting rule would not require real-time knowledge of the output gap. We examine the importance of this claim by amending a standard New Keynesian model to assume that the central bank has imperfect information about the output gap and therefore must forecast the output gap based on previous information. Forecast errors by the central bank can then potentially induce unanticipated changes in the short-term nominal interest rate, distinct from a standard monetary policy shock. We show that forecast errors of the output gap by the Federal Reserve can account for up to 13% of the fluctuations in the output gap. In addition, our simulations imply that a nominal GDP targeting rule would produce lower volatility in both inflation and the output gap in comparison with the Taylor Rule under imperfect information.
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In August 2006, Serbia adopted an inflation targeting regime as its monetary regime. The initial period of implementation of this regime was characterized by an extremely high capital inflow and appreciation of the exchange rate o...
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In August 2006, Serbia adopted an inflation targeting regime as its monetary regime. The initial period of implementation of this regime was characterized by an extremely high capital inflow and appreciation of the exchange rate of the dinar. Under such conditions, the selected monetary policy regime functioned well. However, at the end of 2008, when the global financial crisis caused the outflow of foreign capital, deterioration of foreign borrowing conditions and an increase in inflationary expectations, the dinar lost about 25 per cent of its value within a relatively short period, despite the interventions of the National Bank of Serbia in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the authors of this paper raise a dilemma whether Serbia conducts an adequate policy of the exchange rate of the dinar. The authors point out that, at the moment, the policy of a free floating exchange rate is not adequate for Serbia. As an alternative, a two nominal-anchor regime-inflation and the exchange rate-is proposed.
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There is a great deal of support for nominal income targeting in the literature on strategies for monetary policy in a closed economy framework. Is nominal income targeting equally attractive in a small open economy? This paper co...
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There is a great deal of support for nominal income targeting in the literature on strategies for monetary policy in a closed economy framework. Is nominal income targeting equally attractive in a small open economy? This paper compares nominal income targeting to alternative monetary policy rules in a stochastic macro model for a small open economy. We find that both the weighting in the overall price level of the exchange rate and foreign prices and the elasticity of output supplied with respect to the real exchange rate are important factors in assessing the attractiveness of nominal income targeting. In a small open economy where the size of both parameters is not negligible, a rule targeting the overall price level may actually be preferred to nominal income targeting.
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In this paper the optimality of a specific variant of monetary policy rules a la Taylor is tested within a general equilibrium monetary model with both nominal and real rigidities. The traditional Taylor rule is amended by the inc...
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In this paper the optimality of a specific variant of monetary policy rules a la Taylor is tested within a general equilibrium monetary model with both nominal and real rigidities. The traditional Taylor rule is amended by the inclusion of the growth rate of nominal wage, or 'wage inflation'. Nominal rigidities are inserted via quadratic adjustment costs for both prices and wages a la Rotemberg [1982. Sticky prices in the United States. Journal of Political Economy 90,1187-1211] and Kim [2000. Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 45, 329-359], Cost of capital adjustment together with a positive steady state inflation rate allow the model to match the main empirical facts about US economy. The model is solved by using a second order approximation around the non-stochastic steady state, as in Kim et al. [2008. Calculating and using second order accurate solutions of discrete time dynamic equilibrium models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32 (11), 3397-3414]. The welfare metric is offered by the second order expansion of the utility function conditional to the non-stochastic steady state. The results show that wage inflation targeting is welfare improving when coupled with inflation targeting. Moreover, optimal monetary rules include also a positive coefficient for output targeting, as the need to smooth out quantity adjustments induced by real and nominal rigidities. Similar results occurs when both targets are in expected value one period-ahead. The model shows good in sample and out of sample properties.
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I model flexible targeting with linear and quadratic loss function in the output gap and inflation rate. I find a form of targeting with one-sided dismissal rules attractive; it discourages the central banker from inflating and mi...
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I model flexible targeting with linear and quadratic loss function in the output gap and inflation rate. I find a form of targeting with one-sided dismissal rules attractive; it discourages the central banker from inflating and minimizes the probability of its dismissal in the presence of aggregate supply shocks. This procedure ties the central banker's performance to observable policy targets, whether the nominal output or the inflation rate, and gives some valuable flexibility in terms of stabilization of shocks Two cases of targeting procedures, nominal output targeting and inflation targeting, are compared to the full discretionary case without any dismissal rule. The central banker, accountable to hit the policy target, implements a dominant policy whenever she takes a hawkish stance against inflation, and targets the variable that is most affected by the unobservable supply shock. This type of reappointment contract implies that monetary policy would become fully transparent, consistently more credible and more effective than the discretionary case without dismissal. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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